Osun 2026: Tinubu’s ‘aroko’ and politics of OYO la wa, by Babafemi Ojudu

Former presidential adviser Babafemi Ojudu argues that President Tinubu’s intervention in the Osun account freeze signalled political neutrality ahead of the governorship election.

Do you know that Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke made serious efforts to join the APC (All Progressives Congress) but was rebuffed? The President (Bola Ahmed Tinubu) was reportedly favourably disposed to his joining, but the local chapter would have none of it.

“We do not need you in our party. We can win the next election without you,” they apparently reasoned.

Tinubu tried but could not persuade them to change their position. His brother, former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, led the opposition to Adeleke’s entry.

Meanwhile, the party that brought Adeleke to power had been severely weakened by Emperor Wike. Adeleke was therefore left in political limbo, eventually finding refuge in the relatively obscure Accord Party.

The desperation of both the APC and Accord to capture Osun has since triggered a disturbing wave of violence, resulting in many deaths, with each side accusing the other of responsibility.

In an attempt to intimidate the opposition, a trick was pulled from the Obasanjo and Jonathan playbook. The state’s Secretary to the State Government was picked up, driven furiously by road to Abuja and confronted with several allegations. That, too, failed to distract the Accord warriors.

Every opinion poll conducted within the past three months—by all the parties contesting the election, as well as by a security agency—suggests that the APC does not enjoy a comfortable lead. Some reports even claim that the party placed third in certain polls. This may explain the desperate attempt, in the run-up to the election, to use the EFCC (Economic and Financial Crimes Commission) to cripple the state government and weaken the Accord Party.

The President, being a pragmatic politician, must have taken note of the public outrage that greeted the freezing of the state government’s accounts, as well as the results of the opinion polls. Politically, he is never attracted to a loser, no matter the filial relationship involved.

He must also recognise the importance of maintaining a reasonably friendly political environment in Osun ahead of his own re-election next year. He needs every vote he can get there. A hostile Osun does not augur well for him, especially considering the ground he has lost in the northern part of the country.

These considerations may have informed his swift intervention and change of course.

Watch closely: in the days leading to the governorship election, the security agencies may become noticeably less belligerent towards Governor Adeleke and his bid for a second term. He put a personal call to him yesterday, a credible report claimed, and the governor also acknowledged that.

The President’s decision to personally sign the press statement may have been his aroko—his coded message—to them.

As for members of our party, our candidate, (Bola) Oyebamiji, and my good friend, the supreme leader of our party in Osun, Gboyega Oyetola, it is time to realise:

OYO la wa o—On Your Own!

Ojudu, a former representative of Ekiti Central Senatorial District, served as the Special Adviser on Political Matters to President Muhammadu Buhari.