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Atiku Abubakar’s proposal for a redesigned fuel subsidy scheme has opened a new policy battleground ahead of the 2027 presidential election, columnist Farooq Kperogi has argued, saying the former vice-president has shifted the political debate from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s past controversies to the economic hardship facing Nigerians.
Kperogi, in his latest column, said Atiku’s decision to propose a targeted subsidy for domestically refined petroleum products represented a more consequential challenge to the Tinubu administration than his previous attacks on the President’s personal history.
Atiku, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), recently proposed replacing the former import-based subsidy arrangement with a targeted, capped and independently audited production subsidy designed to support domestic refining and reduce energy costs.
Under the proposal, qualifying Nigerian refineries would receive crude at preferential prices, subject to conditions on production, domestic supply and transparency.
Kperogi described the proposal as a more serious policy challenge than the personal controversies that have dominated parts of the opposition’s criticism of Tinubu.
He noted that Atiku had previously focused considerable attention on issues surrounding Tinubu’s past, including the President’s 1993 civil forfeiture of $460,000 in the United States and the controversy surrounding his academic records.
According to Kperogi, those issues had not produced the political impact that Atiku may have expected.
He argued that Atiku’s latest intervention was different because it directly challenged one of the defining economic policies of the Tinubu administration — the removal of petrol subsidy.
Atiku’s policy shift
Kperogi acknowledged that Atiku’s current position represented a change from his 2023 campaign position, when the former vice-president had also supported the removal of petrol subsidy.
He said Atiku could argue that the experience of the past three years had changed his assessment of the policy, but added that voters would be justified in demanding detailed explanations.
“He must keep explaining the cost of his subsidy plan, its funding source, its legal path under the Petroleum Industry Act, its anti-corruption safeguards and the mechanisms that will ensure cheaper energy reaches households and industries,” Kperogi wrote.
He said Atiku should also make the commitments measurable so that Nigerians could hold him accountable if he eventually won the presidency.
‘Subsidy removal affects entire economy’
Kperogi argued that the impact of petrol pricing extended beyond motorists because of the central role of petroleum products in Nigeria’s economy.
He said unreliable electricity supply had made petrol an important source of energy for businesses and households, while the country’s dependence on road transportation meant that fuel costs affected the movement of people and goods.
According to him, higher petrol prices therefore feed into transportation, production and food costs.
Kperogi said the removal of subsidy had contributed to increased economic hardship, citing what he described as rising poverty, declining purchasing power and pressure on businesses and households.
He also referenced reports describing the cost-of-living crisis as particularly severe and cited a voter-tracking survey in which a large majority of respondents reportedly said Nigeria was moving in the wrong direction.
States’ increased revenue
The columnist also questioned the argument that increased allocations to states following subsidy removal should be regarded as a sufficient measure of the policy’s success.
He acknowledged that higher allocations could benefit salary earners and pensioners but argued that formal-sector workers represented only a portion of the Nigerian population.
He therefore questioned whether improved government revenues could adequately compensate for the pressure being experienced by households as a result of higher energy and transportation costs.
“What kind of economic triumph makes governors more solvent while making citizens poorer?” he asked.
Atiku must answer questions, Kperogi says
Despite his criticism of the Tinubu administration, Kperogi said Atiku’s proposal should also be subjected to rigorous scrutiny.
He recalled that Atiku had supported subsidy removal in the previous presidential election and said the former vice-president therefore had a responsibility to explain what had changed.
He also questioned whether politicians could be trusted when they changed policy positions during election campaigns.
According to him, Atiku must demonstrate that his proposed subsidy would not reproduce the corruption, opacity and fiscal pressures associated with the previous system.
Kperogi said the former vice-president should provide clear answers on the proposed scheme’s cost, funding source, legal basis and mechanisms for preventing abuse.
‘A useful political argument’
The columnist nevertheless described the subsidy debate as one of the first substantive policy disagreements of the 2027 presidential campaign.
He argued that the debate could shift the election away from controversies over the personal histories of political leaders and towards issues directly affecting Nigerians.“Policy contrast is finally replacing pointless and unproductive character assassination,” Kperogi wrote.
He said Nigerians were more immediately concerned about the cost of food, transportation, electricity, medicine and other necessities than about controversies surrounding the President’s past.
Kperogi concluded that Atiku’s subsidy proposal had moved the political conversation from issues surrounding Tinubu’s past to the economic realities confronting Nigerian households and businesses.
The removal of petrol subsidy became one of the defining economic policies of the Tinubu administration after the President announced its end in May 2023.
The decision substantially increased petrol prices and contributed to higher transportation and living costs, while the Federal Government has maintained that subsidy removal was necessary to reduce fiscal pressure and reform the petroleum sector.
Atiku’s latest proposal seeks to revisit the policy through a targeted production-based model tied to domestic refining rather than the former import-subsidy arrangement.
