2027 Elections: Police deploy predictive strategy to secure 176,846 polling units

• CP Shogunle says intelligence-led policing, risk analysis and deterrence will guide security operations

The Nigeria Police Force has unveiled plans to deploy predictive policing and risk-analysis strategies to secure the country’s 176,846 polling units during the 2027 general elections.

The strategy is designed to identify potential flashpoints ahead of election day and guide the deployment of personnel to areas considered vulnerable to violence and other electoral offences.

Commissioner of Police in charge of Election Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation at the Force Headquarters, Abuja, Dr Abayomi Shogunle, disclosed this during a panel session at the 2026 annual conference of the Guild of Corporate Online Publishers (GOCOP) in Lagos.

The conference, which ended on Thursday, October 8, was held under the theme, “2027 Elections: Trust, Transparency and Shared Responsibilities.”

Shogunle said the police had already commenced preparations for the 2027 elections, assuring Nigerians that adequate personnel would be deployed to maintain law and order throughout the exercise.

He explained that the police had adopted a more analytical approach to election security, drawing on academic research and methods used in other countries to identify and prevent potential threats.

According to him, the Anambra governorship election provided an opportunity to test the approach.

“We found out that we needed to do different things. We brought in the academic angle as it is done in other countries. The Anambra State election was our first test,” he said.

He added that the election was conducted in one day without reported shootings or killings, while voter turnout increased.

Shogunle said the police applied the problem analysis triangle, a crime-prevention framework that examines the relationship between an offender, a potential victim and the absence of effective guardianship.

“For crime to happen, there are three factors that must come together: perpetrator, lack of guardianship, and the victim. We removed all those that were against election,” he said.

The police commissioner also identified deterrence as another component of the strategy, explaining that security agencies would work to discourage individuals or groups planning to disrupt elections.

He cited the Ekiti governorship election as another example of the approach, noting that the police considered the state’s geographical connections with neighbouring states, including Kogi and Kwara, in developing a multilayered security plan.

Shogunle observed that election security had become more complex, partly because elections conducted in a single state could attract people from outside the state who might seek to influence or disrupt the process.

He also said the police would operate within the law in handling electoral matters, including issues relating to the announcement of election results.

Agbakoba raises questions over announcement of results

The police commissioner’s remarks formed part of a wider discussion on election security, institutional responsibilities and public confidence in the electoral process.

Earlier, the conference chairman, former President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Dr Olisa Agbakoba, SAN, described Nigerians as the principal shareholders in the country’s democracy and urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to ensure that the 2027 elections were free, fair and credible.

Agbakoba also raised questions about the constitutional and legal boundaries surrounding the announcement of election results, particularly amid the growing circulation of opinion polls, election projections and unofficial results across traditional and digital media.

His remarks highlighted the need for clarity on the distinction between media organisations reporting election-related information and the legally prescribed procedures for announcing official results.

GOCOP urges shared responsibility

In his welcome address, GOCOP President, Danlami Nmodu, mni, described the conference as timely, coming ahead of the 2027 general elections.

He said the theme reflected the media’s contribution to strengthening democracy, stressing that public trust, electoral transparency and credible elections required the collective efforts of institutions, political actors, journalists and citizens.

“For me, the theme of the conference represents our contribution to deepening democracy in Nigeria. As the country moves towards another general election, there is a need for trust in institutions, transparency in the electoral process and a clear understanding that responsibility for credible elections does not belong to one institution or one group alone,” Nmodu said.

He urged politicians to prioritise the welfare of Nigerians, arguing that government policies should be designed to improve the living conditions of the people.

The GOCOP president also charged journalists to scrutinise both the government and the opposition, while ensuring that their reports remained factual, fair and balanced.

“Our duty as journalists is to put the spotlight on those in government as well as the opposition. We must report facts and be fair and balanced. Credible journalism is one of the ways we can contribute to a healthy democratic process,” he said.

Nmodu further called on the government to intensify efforts to tackle insecurity, promote peace and create an environment conducive to economic activity.

In a goodwill message, Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma, represented by the state’s Commissioner for Information, Declan Emelumba, urged journalists to remain objective and guided by facts in their coverage of elections.

Securing polling units across Nigeria presents a major logistical and operational challenge for the police, particularly in a country where electoral violence, intimidation, vote-buying and other forms of malpractice have periodically raised concerns about the credibility of elections.

An intelligence-led approach seeks to anticipate threats rather than respond only after incidents occur.

Risk assessments can help security agencies identify vulnerable locations, plan personnel deployment and coordinate preventive measures.

However, the effectiveness of the strategy will depend on accurate intelligence, adequate staffing, impartial enforcement of the law and respect for voters’ rights.

Police conduct before, during and after voting will also be important in sustaining public confidence in the electoral process.